Cars of the Future

Budget day 2024 was another momentous day in the history of Cars of the Future and our mission to chart the development of self-driving in the UK.

We won’t dwell on the £40bn in tax rises here, but, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves was busy announcing the very welcome extension of the Plug-in Van Grant (PiVG), the reinstatement of the 2030 new petrol and diesel car sales ban, and £200m in funding to accelerate local EV charge point rollout, major self-driving developments were taking place.

Self-driving events

First, a stone’s throw from Parliament, at One Great George Street, WMG hosted a high-profile industry conference on Professor Siddartha Khastgir’s Cross-Domain Safety Assurance for Automated Transport Systems – more to follow on that.

We must, however, skip straight to the afternoon, and a trip to the Advanced Engineering Show at the NEC in Birmingham. We covered last month how visitors will soon be able to enjoy electric self-driving shuttle rides from the station to the halls, courtesy of New Zealand-based autonomous vehicle manufacturer, Ohmio.

This was a pre-trial trial – a chance for members of the public to get a brief taste of the coming self-driving service in the safety of the NEC car park. Thank goodness for the press pass, because the queue to try it was long!

Following our on-road trial in an Oxa-modified Mondeo in August, this was another unmissable chance to have a go in a real live self-driving vehicle in the UK – and not a modified car, a built from the ground up self-driving shuttle – The Ohmio Lift…

Brian Matthews, Ian Pulford and members of the Solihull & Coventry Automated Links Evolution (SCALE) team were on-hand to answer questions, with the former then hot-footing it to Milton Keynes to display the shuttle at the new MK Smart City Experience Centre, ahead of another eagerly-awaited on-road trial starting next month.

Here, the shuttle might only have been circling a largely obstacle-free car park, but it was nonetheless impressive that the software had only been trained on the route that morning.

The drive was decent, a little jerky maybe, but not on the scale of a London Tube train! The accessibility was amazing, with an automatic wheelchair ramp and a spacious dedicated bay inside.

Self-driving deployment

Pulford, CEO at project lead Smart City Consultancy, has high hopes for the vehicle, with the on-road StreetCAV project in Milton Keynes potentially a blueprint for nationwide deployment.

“StreetCAV has been going for some time now, so we are absolutely thrilled that it is finally at a stage where we can reveal it to the world,” he said. “We truly believe we have developed a solution which can change the future of urban mobility while making our towns and cities smarter, greener, and more inclusive.

“We have worked rigorously to ensure public safety. Working closely with Milton Keynes City Council, BT and ECS, we will establish a city centre control room, connected by a specifically designed communications network, provided by CableFree, which will allow the Ohmio vehicles to be supervised and managed remotely.

“It has been a fantastic project to work on and we can’t thank our partners and funders enough for their continued work and support.”

Mark Cracknell, program director at Zenzic, added: “We are proud to have supported the development of StreetCAV, and to have worked with all of the partners involved.

“Should the trial prove a success, it could lay the foundations for a more connected, inclusive, and resilient transportation network, not only for Milton Keynes, but for towns and cities across the globe.

“It is a perfect example of how, by working more collaboratively and bringing together industry, academia and the public sector, the UK can lead the way in accelerating the self-driving revolution.”

Finally, it is starting to feel like the revolution has begun.

In our recent sensor-fusion feature, Steven Spieczny of Kognic highlighted the successful expansion of Kodiak’s self-driving heavy goods vehicle (HGV) mileage in America.

While the recipient of our 2023 Award for Testing, Quresh Sutarwala, moved on to Applied Intuition, Kodiak has enjoyed an incredible 2024, announcing some major new corporate partnerships and launching the Kodiak Industry Advisory Council.

Intended to help guide Kodiak’s strategic roadmap and inform how autonomous trucks “will benefit the trucking industry, society, and the world”, the high-profile committee includes James Reed, VP of Transportation Development at Walmart; Chad Dittberner, SVP of Dry & Expedited at Werner Enterprises; Anne Ferro, former FMCSA Administrator and President of the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators; William Kruger, VP of Fleet Maintenance and Engineering at UPS; Shannon Newton, President of the Arkansas Trucking Association; and Brett Suma, Founder and CEO of Loadsmith.

“We’re fortunate to have such an esteemed group of industry luminaries whose range of experience includes work with industry-leading shippers, carriers, safety advocates, and regulators,” said Council chair and Kodiak board member, James Reed. “Their unique perspectives will help to lead and shape the ways we approach industry and driver engagement, industry transformation, and driving public acceptance of autonomous trucks.”

Self-driving logistics

As to its new partners, in January, Kodiak established a new truckport at the Houston facility of leasing and fleet management specialist, Ryder. Described as an “ecosystem-first, capital-lite approach”, it will serve as a base for testing and validating autonomous freight operations between Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City.

Further significant news followed the very next month. In February, Kodiak announced a landmark agreement with supply chain giant Martin Brower to autonomously deliver refrigerated freight for “two of the top five largest fast food chains in the United States”.

It includes eight time-critical deliveries per week between Dallas and Oklahoma City, with the two companies already exploring additional shuttle lane opportunities. “We chose Kodiak because we share a mutual commitment to safety and customer service,” said Mark Grittner, Director of Global Capital, Fleet and Facilities at MB.

“By working together, we are able to benefit from the safety, reliability and efficiency provided by Kodiak’s autonomous technology, while also ensuring our local drivers can continue to provide the best-in-class customer service that is foundational to Martin Brower’s reputation.” 

Kodiak founder and CEO, Don Burnette, added: “Your next order of fries may well have travelled on a Kodiak truck! Autonomous trucks are well-suited to the difficult work of long-haul driving, while allowing our partners’ local drivers to handle last-mile deliveries and provide a personal touch for customers.

“Martin Brower’s shuttle lane model is an ideal application for Kodiak that enables us to demonstrate the value of our technology within our customers’ existing networks.”

As part of the partnership, MB has joined Kodiak’s Partner Deployment Program, designed to help carriers establish autonomous freight operations and integrate the Kodiak Driver self-driving system into their fleets.

Visitors to the National Exhibition Centre (NEC) in Birmingham – home to many of the UK’s most popular motoring events – will soon be able to enjoy electric self-driving shuttle rides courtesy of New Zealand-based autonomous vehicle manufacturer, Ohmio.

The first in an eagerly anticipated wave of new UK self-driving pilot announcements expected before Christmas, The Solihull & Coventry Automated Links Evolution (SCALE) project will see a fleet of three Ohmio Lift shuttles (with a safety driver behind the wheel) ferrying passengers along a new 7km route linking Birmingham International railway station, the NEC, and nearby Birmingham Business Park.

SCALE consortium

Supported by the Centre for Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV), Innovate UK and Zenzic, to the not inconsiderable tune of £4m, the project will be led by Solihull Council and delivered by a consortium including Coventry University, WMG at The University of Warwick, Transport for West Midlands (TfWM), the NEC, Coventry City Council, Direct Line Group, IPG and dRISK.

“Connected Automated Mobility (CAM) technology has the potential to revolutionise the way we get around,” said Councillor Andy Mackiewicz, Cabinet Member for Climate Change & Planning in Solihull.

“We are excited to be leading the way, not just in Solihull, but regionally and across the country, in providing learning on CAM deployments in different settings and scenarios. We’ve already carried out a series of successful pathfinder trials here in Solihull, and shown how it is possible to practically and safely start incorporating self-driving vehicles into key parts of our transport infrastructure.

“SCALE represents the next step in this learning and will help develop our understanding around how future commercial passenger services might operate. We’ve brought together a fantastic consortium of experts for this pilot and are already benefitting from the ability to share our relevant expertise and experience.

“Taking place across one of the best-connected destinations in the UK and Europe, this new Solihull-based route will join up three key assets within the UK Central Hub area, operating in a busy but controlled environment and gaining further real-world operating experience.”

Ohmio Lift self-driving shuttle

The Ohmio Lift shuttle can carry up to 20 passengers, the route features specialist roadside technology, and every SCALE journey will be tracked in real-time from the nearby TfWM control centre.

“This is a really exciting opportunity for Ohmio as we grow our business in the UK and Europe,” said Ohmio CEO, Dean Zabrieszach. “We’ve been involved in numerous trial deployments across the world; however, in the SCALE project, it is evident that our consortium members are eager to progress towards a full-scale transportation service.

“Autonomous electric shuttles like the Ohmio Lift have the capacity to fill a void in current transportation systems by providing first mile and last mile accessibility for our communities.

“We look forward to working with our partners in delivering a first-class project and look forward to continued opportunities in the UK, where the government is taking a leading role in supporting such projects.”

Self-driving UK

Mark Cracknell, Programme Director at Zenzic, added: “This is an exciting development for SCALE, one of the six successful projects from the CCAV Deployment competition, which form the most advanced set of commercial self-driving passenger and freight operations anywhere in the world.

“With these investments, the UK is further strengthened and positioned to become one of the world’s leading destinations for the adoption of CAM technology and the delivery of improved transport services.”

Services are due to start “before the of the year”, with the initial project scheduled to run until the end of March 2025.

Early riders are therefore likely to include petrolheads on the annual pilgrimage to the Autosport International show in January. Positive feedback from them would be a notable win in the race for public acceptance.

Then there’s the indy kids heading to see Ocean Colour Scene in March. Which will be more memorable, The Day We Caught The Train or catching a self-driving shuttle? Any excuse to play it… enjoy!

To accelerate self-driving in the UK, Zenzic has announced six more exceptional SMEs to receive up to £100k each as part of its prestigious CAM Scale-Up programme.

22 self-driving innovators have been supported by the programme since 2020. This is the fifth ‘cohort’, and we’ve covered the journeys of multiple 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 winners here on Cars of the Future.

The six 2024 winners, in alphabetical order, are:

• Blueskeye AI – Nottingham-based company building clinical grade facial recognition technology for fatigue detection.

• Deontic UK –London-based large language model (LLM) artificial intelligence to help integrate regulatory frameworks into self-driving technology.

• Maaind – London-based company using speech recognition, computer vision and smart device readings to mitigate stress-related driving accidents.

• Moonbility – London-based company using CCTV to provide real-time information about available wheelchair bays on buses.

• Opteran – Headquartered in London, provides neuromorphic software to enable machines to mimic the human brain’s driving abilities.

• Saif Systems – Cambridge-based provider of real-time safety monitoring software on proprietary hardware e.g. to stop systems operating outside of constraints.

Self-driving funding

Supported by the government’s Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV), and in partnership with tech start-up supporter Plug and Play, a key benefit of CAM Scale-Up UK success is access to the world-leading facilities of CAM Testbed UK, which now includes Catesby Tunnel and Tees Valley.

Mark Cracknell, Programme Director at Zenzic, said: “CAM Scale-Up UK is not just about providing funding to businesses, it’s very much a wrap-around support programme which provides those successful with everything they need to truly realise their potential.

“Through CAM Testbed UK, they can test their solutions in as close to real-life scenarios as possible and accelerate their route to market. All the while picking the brains of some of the brightest minds in industry.”

For further info on the CAM Scale-Up UK programme, please see the Zenzic website.

World-renowned self-driving vehicle expert, Corey Clothier, co-founded ARIBO in 2016 to assist new operators with AV strategy and help AV developers grow into new markets.

“I’m very happy to be judging the Self-Driving Industry Awards again,” he said. “Being US-based, I bring an international perspective from one of the most advanced AV markets.” 

For over 15 years now, Corey has been helping global cities and pretty much anyone with a campus to realize the benefits of AVs – to reduce costs and risks by embracing autonomy. 

“It’s not just about the vehicle, it’s about setting up the entire ecosystem, from field engineering and testing, to measuring performance and managing systems,” he said.

Self-driving projects

Recent projects include evaluating AV support for mining in South America, supporting automated trucking adoption with the Canadian forestry industry, advising on an autonomous bus for a US national park, and taking a fractional leadership role as Global Automated Mobility Lead at sustainable design and engineering specialist, Arcadis.

“We’ve also been looking into automated transit network applications, working with Dromos, who won your Design Award last year, and other great start-ups,” he said. 

“Airside operations are also really interesting, and we’ve been working with airports, airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to plan for and adopt automated vehicle systems. We’ll be making an exciting announcement on that very soon.” 

Sounds like a simple enough question, right? Actually, predicting who will own self-driving cars takes us to the complicated intersection of the connected, automated, shared and electric megatrends.

For many of us born last century, a car will be the second most expensive thing we ever buy, after a house. With our hearts ruling our heads, we dismissed the sage advice of oil baron Paul Getty – “If it appreciates, buy it. If it depreciates, lease it.” – for the love of a particular model in our favourite colour.

These days, thanks to modern finance products such as Personal Contract Purchase (PCP), we get the best of both worlds – the option after three years to purchase outright or return it to the lender, and repeat. No wonder the UK vehicle parc hit an all-time high of over 41 million last year.

However, within the SMMT’s new car registration figures, there’s a notable trend: the growth is driven by fleets, with both private buyer and business registrations well down. What’s going on?

Access or ownership

A 2023 McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse survey of 4,000 French, German and UK respondents provides a clue. It found that 60% owned a car, and 80% had regular access to one – an important distinction, and demographics come into play.

As Doug Jenkins, Motor Technical Risk Manager at AXA Insurance, has pointed out: “In my day, passing your test and getting your first car was all about mobility. Young people still want to get from A to B, but they want choices – they’re not so worried about ownership.”

Temporary car insurance provider, Cuvva, provides some compelling statistics: the average car owner in Outer London will spend £3,502 a year on running costs alone (insurance, fuel, MOT, tax and maintenance), and 31% of London car owners use their vehicle less than 10 times a month.

The unsurprising result is, as Andrew Smith, managing director of vehicle rental firm Sixt, told The Telegraph: “We see customers now who come to us every Friday and rent a car just for the weekend.”

So, less outright ownership and better short-term access options already. Now, let’s turn our attention to how self-driving might change the game.

In his April 2024 industry update, Scaling Self-driving Technology on the Path to Ubiquity, the CEO of Oxa, Gavin Jackson, wrote: “There’s disagreement over the sectors to focus on first, and no international consensus yet on what constitutes a safe autonomous vehicle system.

“Momentum, however, is picking up. The UK’s new Automated Vehicles Act will lead to regulations overseeing the in-use safety of vehicle fleets, and a host of other things.”

Two important takeaways there. First, the ubiquity; once self-driving tech is proven, it will be everywhere – from privately owned cars to vans, buses and HGVs. Second, the emphasis on fleet.

Self-driving fleets

To answer the question directly, large numbers of self-driving cars will be owned by robotaxi companies (those with a UK No User-in-Charge operator licence, as per the Law Commission’s recommendations). Which makes Uber’s recent investment in Wayve all the more interesting.

“Wayve is building a ‘general purpose’ driving Al that can power all levels of driving automation in any type of vehicle, anywhere in the world,” said CEO and inaugural Self-Driving Industry Award winner, Alex Kendall. 

“I’m excited to be teaming up with Uber to massively ramp up our AI’s fleet learning, ensuring our AV technology is safe and ready for global deployment across Uber’s network. Together, we’re excited to work with automotive OEMs to bring autonomous driving technologies to consumers sooner.”

Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber, added:“Uber and Wayve share a vision of reimagining mobility. Wayve’s advanced Embodied AI approach holds a ton of promise as we work towards a world where modern vehicles are shared, electric and autonomous.”

Shared vehicles, by their nature, are utilitarian, and rarely set pulses racing. That’s why experts like Steve Gooding, of the RAC Foundation, and Tom Stringer, Product Strategy Director at JLR, insist that self-driving will not signal the end of personal ownership, far from it.

“Are you really going to ditch all those bespoke choices, and the convenience of knowing the car is at your personal beck-and-call, because you’re going to be able to summon a self-driving vehicle?” Gooding asks.

Self-driving cars will clearly be an attractive proposition for those currently unable to drive. Ownership patterns will be different in urban and rural areas, and there could well be regulatory curveballs like road charging or incentives for multi-occupancy.

In any case, those with the deepest pockets will still treat themselves to amazing cars like the Rolls-Royce 103EX concept. For the majority, as with electric vehicles (EVs), fleet operators and leasing companies will shoulder much of the early adopter risk.

Please note: the author produced an earlier version of this article for The Institute of the Motor Industry’s MotorPro magazine.

At approximately 10.30am local time on Tuesday 13 August 2024, with an average left turn in a Ford Mondeo, I reached a momentous personal milestone. After publishing over 300,000 words on the subject, I finally got to ride in a self-driving car on public roads in the UK. Excitement level off the chart!

With autonomy systems expert Bryn Balcombe for company, the turn out of the Oxford business park was noteworthy only for the fact that the road wasn’t completely clear – there was oncoming traffic, but I’d have gone and the Oxa software agreed.

On-road self-driving

Within seconds we were taking the middle of three lanes up to a busy roundabout, pausing momentarily while an aggressive driver steamed up our inside. From there on in, it went remarkably smoothly. A-roads and B-roads, cars, vans, buses and HGVs, learner drivers, cyclists and pedestrians – all handled without fuss, nothing outrageous to report.

You begin by analysing every tiny decision, as if the car were taking its driving test. Yes, the technology is amazing, but most humans get from A to B multiple times a day, for years on end, without major incident, so that must mean we’re also pretty amazing, right?

Ross the cameraman confided afterwards that it was his first time in a self-driving car too. He agreed that the presence of ROSPA gold standard safety driver Tristan was reassuring, but overall felt very comfortable with the experience.

So, there you have it; second top item on the bucket list, tick. Video to follow, along with details of an exceptional roundtable discussion and an exclusive first glimpse of Oxa’s new E-Transit Minibus.