John Birtwistle of First Bus on the groundbreaking Mi-Link autonomous vehicle project – technology, terminology and passenger reactions.

All about Mi-Link – The UK’s 1st fully electric autonomous bus route

John Birtwistle, Head of Policy at First Bus, gives us the lowdown on the Milton Park self-driving bus trial – their preference for the term “autonomous”, how the technology coped with challenging scenarios, passengers’ positive reactions, and the evolving UK legislative framework.

JB: “The Mi-Link project was very successful – the UK’s first ever fully electric autonomous bus route. Partially funded by Innovate UK and the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV), it was the culmination of five years’ work by a consortium including Fusion Processing and Oxfordshire County Council.

“The aim at the outset was to determine whether the concept of autonomous vehicles could be applied to public transport, not in some sterile environment but in real-world scenarios with mixed traffic, carrying the general public in exactly the same way as we would with a conventional bus.

“The first route ran around the business park itself, a little circular service just to prove the concept. The second route then linked the business park to Didcot Parkway railway station, including autonomous running on a 40mph section of road in normal traffic. The third part of the trial used a full-size single decker vehicle, but that unfortunately developed a fault not related to the autonomous system, so we ended up going back to the minibus and running that for an extended period towards the end of 2023.

Mi-Link autonomous bus, Oxfordshire 2023
Mi-Link autonomous bus, Oxfordshire 2023

“We found that the technology worked very well. Unlike other systems we’ve heard about, it was able to cope with junctions, roundabouts and to keep up with general traffic. Initially it did occasionally display a little hesitancy, but that performance improved throughout the trial, which was extremely good to see.

“Just as important, the passengers liked it. Our project partner The University of the West of England did a lot of research to determine their reactions. The presence of the safety driver was key, not necessarily for vehicle-related reasons but for other factors such as personal security.

“Perhaps more surprising, the safety drivers liked it too. We went through a rigorous selection process based on their driving records and customer service skills, but we didn’t have a single dropout – they all wanted to continue. The final big positive was that the business park community were incredibly encouraging and supportive.

“In terms of negatives, probably the top one was our discovery that there was a greater need for infrastructure maintenance than we expected. We knew before we started that the white lines on the roads had to be clear and visible. What we hadn’t accounted for was the need for roadside vegetation to be kept in such close check. Particularly when it got windy, the vehicles sometimes interpreted bushes moving around as a potential hazard.

Safety cases

“In terms of the regulatory framework, we were pioneering all this in the UK, which was quite daunting. That fact it went so smoothly was due to a collaborative process involving the whole Department for Transport, not just CCAV, and also the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA), the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA), and the Traffic Commissioner, Kevin Rooney.

“We had to produce full safety cases for the vehicles, and operational safety cases for the different routes. At the outset, this was largely a self-approval process, but during the project the requirements changed to include an independent safety case review. That was an additional complication, but actually it provided great reassurance. There was very little we had to change so it was satisfying to know we’d got all the big calls right.

“We weren’t able to charge fares due to a condition of our funding, but we did trial the concept of fare collection by recording use of a £20 a year smartcard pass which is available to all Milton Park business park workers. That’s obviously fantastic value and all those passengers could tap on and off, giving us great information about the journeys being made.

Self-driving bus stop - Mi-Link in Oxfordshire, 2023
Autonomous bus stop – Mi-Link in Oxfordshire, 2023

“With the AV Act opening the door to more widespread autonomous vehicle use, the most significant hurdle is now financial. For the foreseeable future we will continue to see a safety driver on every vehicle. The legislation currently requires a human behind the wheel to provide assistance to people with disabilities, particularly those in wheelchairs, so our operational costs remain the same.

“However, the cost of the vehicles and depreciation are major issues. They are effectively prototypes with a lot of very expensive extra tech. Until that’s productionised, you’re going to find it very difficult to commercialise operation without some form of grant funding. Level 5 vehicles supported by remote operation could allow you to significantly expand the public transport network – to run bus services in areas where you currently cannot afford to do so. But that’s a long way into the future, I suspect

“More immediate applications include depot operations, where an awful lot of time, money and effort goes into shunting vehicles between cleaning, fuelling and repair. Increasingly, it is recharging rather than fuel, so if we can use autonomy to hook vehicles up to a pantograph or an inductive charging system, there are potentially quite big savings there. Possibly autonomous technology could help us with schedule adherence and punctuality too.

Electric and autonomous

“The clean fuel aspect is important as First Bus will completely decarbonise the services we operate for the public by 2035. Already 14% of our vehicles are zero emission, and, although we’ve dabbled in hydrogen, we were only ever going to pick EVs for Mi-Link. The smaller vehicle was a Mellor Orion E bus manufactured in Rochdale and converted to autonomous operation by Fusion Processing. It not only looked stylish but was extremely reliable. The larger bus was a MetroCity EV, again, fully electric and built from scratch in the UK by Switch.

“I cannot praise highly enough all those in the consortium who helped us bring this ambitious project to fruition, not forgetting project manager John McNicol, all those at Milton Park, and Zipabout who delivered the real-time travel information.”

Consortium behind the Mi-Link self-driving bus
Consortium behind the Mi-Link bus with then Secretary of State for Roads, now MP for Basildon and Billericay, Richard Holden

Now that’s self-driving commercialisation! Aurrigo’s Keene sees business case for airside autonomous vehicles at 600+ international airports

Aurrigo in aviation 2024: A soaring UK self-driving success story

In this highly anticipated long-read, Professor David Keene, Automotive Council UK board member and CEO of Coventry-based Aurrigo International plc, explains how he grew a successful self-driving business from traditional automotive roots.

Self-driving expert Aurrigo CEO Professor David Keene
Aurrigo CEO Professor David Keene

How did Aurrigo get into automated mobility?

DK: “I started what was, and still is, an automotive company back in 1993. So, 31 years of designing and developing products for some of the best-known premium vehicle brands in the world, the likes of Aston Martin, Bentley, Jaguar Land Rover and McLaren.

“My background is technical, in electronic systems and software development. Over the years we built up our expertise so that we could effectively design a complete vehicle from a blank sheet of paper.

“Around 2014, I thought, okay, let’s do something interesting to demonstrate our capability, so I got our team to convert a vehicle so that it operated with just a steering wheel, pedals and an iPad.

“It worked well. People were fascinated that you could unlock the car, access the in-car entertainment, and do things like turning the wipers on and change the heating. So, then I wondered: Could we remove the steering wheel, and the pedals, and get it to drive itself? How difficult could it be? Turns out, really difficult!

“Around that time, we became a founding member of the Niche Vehicle Network, a group of small UK car companies and suppliers including the likes of Ariel and Morgan. That caught the attention of Innovate UK, and, through them, the government commissioned us to work on the Lutz project, developing a drive-by-wire platform for a two-seater autonomous vehicle.

“We successfully trialled that in Milton Keynes, so the next step was to write our own software. Fast forward to today and our relatively small team of 100 or so people can design and develop fully finished vehicles running on our own automated software stack.”

How did you come to specialise in aviation?

“After Lutz, we built a four-seater called the Auto-Pod, and then the larger Auto-Shuttle. We trialled those in Cambridge, Milton Keynes, Scotland, even Eastern Europe. We were quite prolific, and our profile was rising quickly.

“Then, one day, something amazing happened; we got a call from a guy in the innovation team of International Airlines Group (IAG), who said: ‘We’ve seen what you’re doing with passenger vehicles, but could your technology move baggage or cargo containers?’

“Of course, we said ‘Yes’, so we entered into a contract with IAG and Heathrow Terminal 5 for British Airways. That was in 2018, and you’ll find lots of videos and press cuttings from that era. We were especially proud to win the Heathrow technology of the year award, and new opportunities opened-up from there.

Aurrigo at Heathrow in 2019

“In late 2019, Innovate invited me to attend an intelligent transport show in Singapore, where we met the innovation team for Changi Airport. Within 30 minutes we’d agreed to work together. We signed an agreement in February 2020 and then, in March, the world changed with the pandemic.

“While everyone else battened down the hatches, Changi did the opposite. They said, ‘Look, it’s going to be quiet, let’s carry on with these technology projects and see if we can get ahead’.

“So, we worked remotely developing our Auto-Sim 3D digital twin software. We built that all through Covid, enabling us to model how the airport operates today, and how it might operate in the future.”

What are the technical challenges of self-driving for aviation?

“The first good thing about working in an airport is that it’s highly regulated, the people are highly trained, and there are lots of processes, procedures and safety checks. There’s still a lot of clutter airside – staff and other vehicles like tow trucks and catering wagons – but generally it’s a very controlled environment. The second really great thing is the low speeds.

“We’ve been very fortunate to have stumbled across this niche because, in terms of commercialisation, that’s all the key things you want. When I started looking at autonomy all those years ago, I promised myself: ‘Whatever you do, don’t go into fast road cars, because that’s really complex’.

“From a technical perspective, airside operations are difficult, but they’re a lot easier than public roads. You’re much less likely to encounter a horse which has broken out of its field – all these edge cases you must solve in a car of the future… and solve really quickly because you’re travelling at 70mph on a motorway! Those sorts of things just don’t happen in an airport environment.

“Coming out of Covid, there was a serious workforce issue in that tens of thousands of ground staff had been laid off. In Singapore this was a particular challenge as the conditions can be harsh; 45-50 degree heat and monsoon storms to contend with. They were struggling to attract people back, so our business case really emerged.

“On top of that, a lot of the time, tug drivers are being paid to tow fresh air, which isn’t very efficient. If you automate that, you can take those valuable security cleared staff and put them into different applications.

“At Changi, we’re at the point where our all-electric, autonomous Auto-DollyTug can go into a baggage hall, line-up and stretch out its’ robotic arms, collect a container and pull it onto the vehicle bed, drive along a roadway to a stand where an aircraft is waiting, enter that stand, work out where the loader bay is, dock with it, and push the container through the cargo door, all completely automatically.

Aurrigo's self-driving, electric Auto-DollyTug in action
Aurrigo’s self-driving, electric Auto-DollyTug in action

“There are specific challenges in operating close to aircraft. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) say the cost of damage caused by ground support equipment (GSE) runs to billions of dollars a year worldwide.

“We’ve proved that our vehicle can do its job repeatedly and reliably, thanks to a load of amazing features. It not only goes forward and backwards, but sideways, left and right. It can twist through 360 degrees, or, indeed, whatever angle you want. It can lift and lower to any of the deck heights in the airport, on either the right or left hand-side.

“Until our vehicle, loading and unloading containerised baggage was considered very difficult while a catering wagon was jacked up to the top deck. Those jobs had to be sequenced. Our sideways capability means they can now happen simultaneously.

“And we do all this in very high temperatures and in very heavy rainfall. Our in-house rain algorithm enables us to operate in up to 50mm per hour of precipitation, way ahead of anybody else.”

Where do you see Aurrigo in five years?

“This year we have already added five more airports to the list with vehicles in the US, UK, Germany and Holland. The next phase of the Changi project is to increase the number of vehicles, to work as a fleet under our cyber-resilient Auto-Connect platform. This involves things like identifying the most optimal Auto-DollyTug available.

“So in five years, we want to be in every one of the 600 or so major international airports, moving baggage and cargo around autonomously, interfacing seamlessly with the aircraft and all the other manual processes and staff. That would be a beautiful day.”

“With passenger cars and robotaxis, you’ve got to ask: Where’s the business case? How long will it be before it returns some profit? That’s why we’ve switched our main focus to this aviation niche.

“We’re the first UK company to come from private ownership, with backing on autonomy from the government, all the way through to listing as a public company and expanding around the world with offices now in Australia, Singapore, Canada, and the US.”

Auto-DollyTug at Stuttgart (pic credit: Leif Piechowski)
Auto-DollyTug at Stuttgart (pic credit: Leif Piechowski)

2023 Self-Driving Industry Award winner, Dr Nick Reed, on Digital Commentary Driving

#SDIA23 Update: Research award winner Dr Nick Reed developing Digital Commentary Driving concept to assess self-driving safety

Welcome to #SDIA23 Updates, a new series exploring what our reigning Self-Driving Industry Award champions have been working on recently. First up: winner of the 2023 award for Research, Reed Mobility.

In this category, the judges were looking for examples of exceptional academic studies and/or market analysis. Funded by the Rees Jeffreys Road Fund, Reed Mobility led a project exploring public attitudes and expectations towards the ethical behaviours of self-driving vehicles.

Since the awards in November, Reed Mobility founder, Dr Nick Reed, has continued his work as Chief Road Safety Adviser to National Highways – including plans to reduce deaths and serious injuries on England’s strategic road network (SRN), and supporting activity in relation to connected and automated mobility (CAM), smart motorways and cybersecurity.

He recently became a founding member of the Department for Transport’s College of Experts, was appointed a trustee to the Road Safety Trust, and joined the Advisory Board of Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE) UK.

As if all that weren’t enough, Dr Reed also found time to update BSI’s CAM Vocabulary

BSI self-driving definition: automated driving
BSI self-driving definition: automated driving

… and continued his work with colleagues there to develop a technique for assessing automated vehicle (AV) safety performance – Digital Commentary Driving (DCD) – as he explains here:

Self-driving data

NR: The 20th century economist, William Deming, is quoted as saying “In God we trust, all others bring data”. This captures his sense that when it comes to important decisions, gut feel and belief are not enough; objective evidence in the form of data is necessary to support decision-making.

My work that won the research category of the Self-Driving Industry Awards 2023 identified that trust was the most important value to the public in their appreciation of automated vehicles and that this trust is encapsulated by four key attributes. AVs should:

  • Be governed by a clear, legal framework;
  • Be at least as safe as a good human driver;
  • Protect other road users at least as well as they protect their occupants;
  • Share data with stakeholders to improve safety.

These principles are enshrined in the recently passed Automated Vehicles Act 2024, but what will be the data that enables us to trust that they will be safe? There are many ways that this question can be approached. The Act provides some signposts, starting with two key principles:

  1. authorised automated vehicles will achieve a level of safety equivalent to, or higher than, that of careful and competent human drivers, and
  2. road safety in Great Britain will be better as a result of the use of authorised automated vehicles on roads than it would otherwise be.

These make intuitive sense but what objective data would satisfy Deming and show that AVs are adhering to these principles? Principle (a) is challenging because there is no agreed definition of careful and competent driving (although DVSA’s National Standards for Driving are a good start); it is not clear how we could determine that an automated vehicle is behaving carefully and competently and therefore what data we should be collecting in order to prove it.

For principle (b), the answer appears more straightforward. We could look at collision rates of AVs (i.e. crashes per distance travelled) and compare that to collision rates for human drivers in similar vehicles on similar journeys and, if AVs achieve a lower crash rate, we can say that road safety is better. However, there are nuances here too. Let’s say AVs were found to be 10% safer than human driven vehicles – would we consider road safety to have improved if utilisation went up by 20%?

Although each individual AV trip would be relatively safer than that completed by a human driver, the overall level of exposure would mean an increase in the absolute number of crashes. Furthermore, an AV service might attract customers who previously completed a similar journey by train. Rail travel is estimated to be 20× safer than human driving so shifting to AVs would increase the global risk of injury even if the AVs were significantly safer than human drivers on the same trip. 

My work with colleagues from BSI to develop a potential technique for assessing AV safety performance may offer a solution. We looked at the ways that we assess the safety of advanced human drivers and the metrics used to assess safe performance of mobile robots. Bridging these worlds, we proposed the concept of Digital Commentary Driving (DCD). This is a standardised protocol for the collection of data from AVs requiring the collection of the data that an AV must be using in order to drive safely.

This includes the current status of the vehicle (e.g. speed, steering angle, brake application, accelerator application, current heading, software version etc.), perception of the surrounding environment (e.g. fixed objects, moving objects) and predictions of their future movement (e.g. desired future heading, desired speed etc.).

Since DCD data covers the essential features necessary for careful and competent driving, it cannot compromise commercially sensitive information about the way a vehicle is being controlled. There is no presumption over how this data is arrived at by the AV systems. DCD does not prescribe the hardware (e.g. an AV might use one or more of cameras, lidar, radar, ultrasound, V2X communication etc.) or the software (e.g. end-to-end deep learning or rules-based approaches etc.) involved – it only requires the sharing of standardised data regarding the perceptions, decisions and actions of the AV.

Furthermore, AV companies would only be required to share data on the performance of their vehicles with an authorised regulator who would hold it securely for analysis pursuant to safety performance.

Of course, the collection of DCD data in itself does not tell us what it means for an AV to be a careful and competent driver. However, it does start to provide a consistent dataset that will enable objective analysis of driving performance by AVs from all developers and benchmarks to be established that set expectations around what it means to drive safely.

This may start the process of building the trust so valued by the public – and would perhaps satisfy Deming’s expectation for objective data to support critical decision making.  

Self-driving expert Dr Nick Reed
Self-driving expert Dr Nick Reed

Self-driving critic Michael DeKort pulls no punches on L3 and L4 on public roads.

DeKort slams on-road self-driving: L3 shouldn’t exist and L4 unviable

In the week which saw an undisputed heavyweight champion crowned for the first time this century, Cars of the Future interviewed one of self-driving’s most vocal critics, Michael DeKort. Like Oleksandr Usyk, we never duck a challenge!

A winner of the IEEE Barus Ethics Award, and member of the SAE On-Road Autonomous Driving Validation & Verification Task Force, DeKort shot to prominence in America in 2006, when, as an engineering project manager at Lockheed Martin, he posted a whistleblowing video about the company’s Deepwater system.

On-road self-driving critic Michael DeKort
On-road self-driving critic Michael DeKort

“I’m not against automotive autonomy, I’m against incompetent and unsafe autonomy,” he began. “If somebody wants to have legitimate and safe self-driving, actually, I’m your best friend.”

An unexpected start. “So, you’re a fan of the slower, more sensible approach we’re taking here in the UK?” we queried.

“No, the UK is just doing less of a very bad thing. I believe there are use cases for autonomy, maybe helping people who can’t or shouldn’t drive, or cutting down on the number of vehicles on the road, and the military side, but let’s try not to injure or kill people needlessly trying to get to level 4. And, while we’re at it, level 3 shouldn’t even exist.

“There’s a huge over-reliance on AI when all we have is pattern recognition. No matter how you slice it. In a lot of cases, it’s at a pixel level. In order to recognise something, the system has to experience a huge amount of variations of objects in various scenarios.

“There’s no general artificial intelligence, there’s no inference, it is basically trial and error. In the meantime, you’re using humans as guinea pigs when, actually, a human that’s not drunk, not distracted, not asleep, is pretty darn good at driving.

Off-road self-driving

“If you do mining or farming with autonomous vehicles then fine, because you can get through the use cases in testing. If they detect an object that shouldn’t be there, they just stop, and probably then somebody remote controls them out of the way.”

“What about shuttles on dedicated lanes?” we asked. “That’s basically a monorail without the rail – it has infrastructure around it – a cordoned off area where only certain people are allowed to go, and that’s factored in.

“The public road network is different. There are countless variations in the environment – material differences, colour differences blah, blah. The point is you can’t get the testing workload down enough.

“You can pick any spot near your house and you will never see level 4 there in your lifetime because there are too many variables. A city like London, forget it! And don’t even get me started on autonomous aircraft without a pilot’s seat, that’s insane.

Self-driving’s perfect storm

“Right now, the autonomous vehicle industry is in a perfect storm. They can’t get enough real-world testing data, and the simulations can’t run complex enough models.

“Most autonomous vehicle makers don’t even model the perception system, they skip over it and feed their own data into the planning system. That’s not proper systems engineering.

“Crash scenarios are not edge cases automatically. That is nonsense. They use it as an excuse, like this thing is so rare. There’s been a lot of coverage about how robotaxis have problems making unprotected left turns. That’s not an edge case. It’s higher risk, but it’s something that human drivers do all the time.

“Look at all the executives from the failed autonomous vehicle makers who have left the industry. Why? Because they realise they can’t get to where they want to, to level 4. So, they go off to different use cases.

“A lot of senior people in this industry have blocked me. They don’t address my point that this technology is not viable, and by putting it on the road we risk harming people for no reason. Tell me why I’m incorrect.”

DeKort has thrown down the gauntlet, would anyone care to pick it up?

Thanks to Attentie Attentie for the boxing ring pic.

Pro-Moto’s Smith on PAVE UK, self-driving skills and consumer education.

Technical training for safe self-driving: Pro-Moto

Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE) started in America, bringing together industry, non-profits and academics to engage with the public on self-driving.

Robotaxi fleets are already operating there, and the recently passed AV Act means they could be here in just a couple of years. Hence the launch of PAVE UK at the Royal Automobile Club in London.

Skills expert Eliot Smith, of Pro-Moto, talks self-driving
Skills expert Eliot Smith, of Pro-Moto, talks self-driving

Among those in attendance was Eliot Smith, director of Hampshire-based automotive training provider Pro-Moto Europe, so we asked him for his informed opinion on the technical skills required to deliver safe self-driving…

What motivated you to attend the launch of PAVE UK?

We got an invite via our customer Silvera Automotive, who are very into electric vehicles (EVs) and automated driving. Given that we specialise in hybrid and EV training, we know it is better to be involved at the start when it comes to such qualifications, to be able to influence the standards and technical aspects.

There’s no doubt that smart transport can bring significant societal benefits, but AVs face a real challenge in terms of public perception. We think it’s important to offer an informed opinion on what path self-driving training should take – to put our business in the driving seat, and to promote the value of those qualifications to technicians and employers.

You got to hear from a host of self-driving luminaries – what did you think?

The burning question I had, which I didn’t get a chance to ask, was: Given how the UK has struggled to accept or adopt EVs – after 20 years consumers still have questions about how to charge, where to charge, anxiety about range and so forth – how are we going to educate consumers about the advantages of AVs?

We’ve seen it time and again in automotive, on ABS, airbags, petrol injection, the consumer is always the last to be made aware. They’re left with doubts and nervousness, when all this could and should have been solved quite easily.

When the iPhone launched, everyone got it. The way it was marketed, consumers could see the benefits. It was a sea change and got accepted straightaway. Compare that to EVs. I worry we may end up in the same place with AVs. We need investment to educate people.

What about the practicalities of AV maintenance and repair?

A lot of the tech – brakes, suspension and steering components, in-cabin stuff – will be the same as existing vehicles, so that shouldn’t be a barrier. We will probably need common access, like we have with OBDII.

Once we understand what standards are required in the design, production, service and repair of AVs, the IMI or National Occupational Standards can decide whether we can map across current qualifications, or whether we need a new set. That’s the starting point.

Pro-Moto would like to sit on the expert working group, as we did with EV, to be part of the development and evolution of AV qualifications. These will help to educate not only the industry but consumers as well.

There will come a time soon when the AV will alert the service centre to a maintenance need, the necessary parts will be pre-ordered, and it will be a seamless transition all the way through.

Please note: a version of this article was first published in the Institute of the Motor Industry’s MotorPro magazine.

Self-driving on track! Exclusive video of Indy Autonomous Challenge testing ahead of UK competitive debut at Festival of Speed 2024

Indy Autonomous Challenge self-driving tests ahead of Festival of Speed 2024 record attempt

The Indy Autonomous Challenge (IAC) race team invited Cars of the Future to Goodwood on Sunday 7 July to witness final testing ahead of its self-driving hill climb record attempt at the Festival of Speed 2024.

Working closely with Vodafone for on-site connectivity, a new version of the 192mph PoliMOVE car – the reigning autonomous land speed world record holder – successfully completed a series of increasingly rapid test runs, as you can see here…

Self-driving on track: Indy Autonomous Challenge at Festival of Speed 2024

Sponsored by Bridgestone and developed by the Politecnico university in Milan, the University of Alabama and Michigan State University, PoliMOVE now boasts a Dallara AV-24 chassis, 4-cylinder Honda engine, upgraded hardware (including 4 Luminar Iris lidar units, 6 cameras and 2 GPS), and a significantly improved software stack.

With safety paramount and weather permitting, the team expects to beat the current Festival of Speed (FOS) mark of 66.96s, achieved by the now defunct Roborace team back in 2018.

Self-driving on track - IAC PoliMOVE car at Festival of Speed 2024
Self-driving on track – IAC PoliMOVE car at Festival of Speed 2024

Self-driving challenge

Commenting on the unique demands of the narrow track, Paul Mitchell, IAC President, said: “Unlike the familiar ovals and F1 road courses, Goodwood’s famous Hillclimb will challenge the precision of sensor perception, GPS localisation, vehicle dynamics, and path planning in new ways, providing a historical backdrop to showcase the future of high-speed autonomous mobility.”

The event forms part of Goodwood’s FOS Tech strategy, bringing together all future mobility content, along with science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) learning programmes for 11-16 year-olds.

FOS founder, The Duke of Richmond, said: “This year, with our new FOS Tech ethos, visitors to the Festival of Speed can experience the work of groundbreaking innovators and their vision for tomorrow’s world.”

PoliMOVE has provisionally been allocated a slot in Batch 2 on each of the four days. For scheduled track times, see the Festival of Speed website

Self-driving expert Peter Hafmar of Scania talks automated mining and hub-to-hub transport

Why Scania is focused on self-driving hub-to-hub and mining

Following his talk on safe and responsible self-driving rollout at the SMMT’s Connected 2024 event, we asked Peter Hafmar, Head of Autonomous Solutions at Scania, to expand on his groundbreaking work.

Self-driving expert Peter Hafmar of Scania
Self-driving expert Peter Hafmar of Scania

PH: “I started in the people transport area, more bus-related, at the height of self-driving hype in 2015-16, when everyone believed it was all going to happen immediately! Then I moved into the taxi pod side of things, and for the last three years I’ve been at Scania, working on the two closest to market segments – on-road hub-to-hub goods transport and mining applications.

Self-driving mining

“In mining, we have a development agreement with British-Australian multinational, Rio Tinto, for an open pit rigid tractor solution. We’ve been working on it for quite a while and have come so far we’re now opening up the order books to other customers, first in Australia and then other continents, probably South America next.

Scania self-driving mining

“A lot of mines are very remote, so there’s complexity in getting people able to operate vehicles there, but the main push is safety. Mining customers are extremely safety conscious. If you can remove people from hazardous situations, you do so. We’ve also found we can downsize the size of tractors and mine in a more efficient way.

Self-driving hub-to-hub

“For the hub-to-hub, we’ve been driving on public roads since 2021, so our development curve is quite steep. We’ve been driving in different countries, but our main drive is now in Sweden, working with our US-based software stack partner, Plus.

“We’re in dialogue with several customers about starting operations, moving their goods from one of their terminals to another completely autonomously, but with a safety driver. We’re getting to a point with the technology now where we need to focus on the integrations you need in the customer’s data flows – what communications you want to have with their management system so everything is integrated in the right way.

“The biggest difference for us between hub-to-hub and mining is that with the on-road project we have a software stack partner, whereas for the mining segment we’re doing everything ourselves. The technology in the confined area is more rules based, whereas on-road involves more AI solutions – how you interact with the hardware, sensors and computing side. There’s a lot of learning we can bring in from the mining segment about full self-driving operations, without a safety driver.

Scania self-driving
Scania self-driving

“Scania is a well-established European company with a really good set of values, traditionally very focused on truck hardware. Today, we also develop state-of-the-art software, and are embracing all these transformative modern technologies. It’s pretty cool.

“As to how deployment will happen, people services in cities like London or Stockholm will take time, not only because of the complexity of the infrastructure, but also the difficulties in accounting for free will. How do you take payment? How do you get people to sit if they insist on standing?  How do you stop them holding a door open when they shouldn’t? There’s so much to consider. That’s why industrial applications and hub-to-hub freight will come first.”

New for summer 2024! Your favourite self-driving news in print.

Cars of the Future – the UK’s No.1 for Self-Driving – in print for MOVE

Well, this is exciting; visitors to the MOVE event in London will be the first to enjoy Cars of the Future – the UK’s No.1 for Self-Driving – in print.

Copies will be available in Theatre 6 (the AV stage), where I’ll be hosting on Wednesday afternoon. If you can’t make it, fear not, you can always email us to request one.

Or there’s this digital copy: Cars of the Future, summer 2024

A brief look at common objections to self-driving. Do they stack up?

AV Myth-Busting: From Self-Driving Denial To Terrorist Hacks

“It’s clear that many people are still not sure whether self-driving vehicles will be safer than human drivers, and don’t know whether they will improve travel or who will benefit most,” concluded the 2021 Myth-Busting Self-Driving Vehicles paper by the road safety charity, Brake.

Compared to bizarre but persistent urban legends like “dogs can’t look up”, these sound like reasonable doubts which can and should be addressed. That said, it is universally accepted that the automated vehicle (AV) industry has a public perception mountain to climb.

To move the debate on, we’ve divided the vocally anti-self-driving into three groups: 1) deniers, 2) opponents, and 3) catastrophisers. Let’s take their concerns in turn and see if they stack up.

Self-driving deniers

The it’ll never happen brigade – those living, wilfully or not, in denial of the capabilities of modern transport technologies. Exhibit A: The headline “Self-driving cars are another Silicon Valley fantasy that will never work” in The Telegraph last September.

Being as balanced as we can, the industry has somewhat brought this upon itself by overpromising. In 2018, Elon Musk felt “very confident” that Tesla owners would be sending their cars out as robotaxis the following year. That didn’t happen.

Fast forward to 2024, however, and AVs are on the road. In America, Waymo says it has conducted “7+ million miles of rider-only driving”. In Scotland, Project CAVForth – using a specially modified fleet of Stagecoach buses – has been taking fares daily since May 2023, giving tens of thousands of UK passengers their first taste of self-driving public transport.

Self-driving opponents

The I don’t like it mob – fair enough, that is their prerogative, but it is often extended to an assertion that nobody loves AVs. Exhibit B: The headline “Maybe People Don’t Want Self-Driving Cars After All” in Jalopnik last October.

Ok, why should they? Last summer, The Self-Driving All-Party Parliamentary Group published a well-informed policy paper to make the case, starting with some pretty eye-catching economic and safety benefits.

“The UK has a unique opportunity for leadership in an industry that could be worth £750 billion globally by 2035,” it said. “The Government’s analysis of the sector showed that it could potentially generate £42 billion and 38,000 jobs for the UK economy by 2035.”

On the safety impact, it listed the four leading causes of road accidents – driver error, reckless behaviour, disobeying traffic laws and driver impairment – saying: “Research from the insurance industry shows that self-driving vehicles could save the NHS £2.3 billion annually in medical and ambulance costs by eliminating the 85% of accidents where human error is a contributory factor.”

Another oft-quoted benefit is improved accessibility. While urging the industry to engage more with the community, Gordon McCullough, CEO of the Research Institute for Disabled Consumers (RiDC), said recently: “Self-driving can clearly be a transformative technology for a lot of disabled people.”

Self-driving catastrophisers

The nightmare scenario obsessives – sometimes quite knowledgeable, who focus on the worst potential impacts of automation. Exhibit C: The headline “Terrorists could hack into driverless cars to use as weapons” in The Mail last October.

Cybersecurity has been one of the hottest automotive topics for a decade now, with increasingly frequent and sophisticated attacks met by ever more advanced defences. It was highlighted at the SMMT’s Connected 2024 event that we don’t invest as heavily as the banking sector. Maybe we should.

Another go-to for catastrophisers is the trolley problem – the question of who to save in no-win crash situations. Exhibit D: Jeremy Clarkson’s “Driverless cars are pointless – and they have built-in instructions to kill you” headline in The Sun.

That isn’t how perception software works, and, as Elliot Hemes, of IPG Automotive UK, says:99% of the time, great brakes will get you out of trolley problem scenarios.”

Please note: a version of this article was first published in the Institute of the Motor Industry’s MotorPro magazine.

Talking self-driving safety and regulation with Philip Koopman, Associate Professor at Carnegie Mellon University

Koopman on self-driving safety in 2024: UK is adult in the room, US is Wild West

With the Automated Vehicles Bill passing Parliament, and attention turning to secondary legislation, we go deep on regulation with one of the world’s preeminent self-driving safety experts – Philip Koopman, Associate Professor in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) at Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania.

In his 2022 book “How Safe Is Safe Enough? Measuring and Predicting Autonomous Vehicle Safety”, aimed at engineers, policy stakeholders and technology enthusiasts, Koopman deconstructs the oft-quoted metric of being “at least as safe as a human driver”, and urges greater focus on what is “acceptably safe for real-world deployment”.

Self-driving safety expert, Philip Koopman
Self-driving safety expert, Philip Koopman

You’ve described the UK as “the adult in the room” when it comes to self-driving regulation – why? 

To be clear, the context was a general statement about safety, not necessarily specific to any particular regulation or standard. It’s a cultural statement, rather than a technical one.

Let’s talk about the US, the UK and Europe, because I can separate those out. In Europe, there’s type approval, whereas in the US there is no requirement to follow any standards at all. People point to the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), but that’s about things like airbags and dashboard warning lights, not automated vehicle features.

In the UK, you have the ALARP principle, which applies to all health and safety law. It is not required anywhere else, other than perhaps Australia, which is also doing a good job on safety. Under ALARP, companies are required to have a safety case that demonstrates they have mitigated risks ‘As Low As Reasonably Practicable’.

That’s a reflection of UK culture valuing and emphasising safety – industrial safety systems as well as occupational safety. Other countries don’t do that to the same degree, so that was the basis for my ‘adult in the room’ statement.

You British actually have research funding for safety! There’s a bit of that in the EU, but in the US there’s essentially none. I’ve succeeded, and Professor Leveson at MIT, but it’s a very small handful. In the UK, you have the York Institute for Safe Autonomy, you have Newcastle University, and there’s government funding for safety which you just don’t see in the US.

What about self-driving vehicle manufacturers – how do they approach safety?

The car companies had functional safety people, and some of them ended up looking at autonomy, but it was often pretty crude. You need to differentiate between traditional motor vehicle safety and the computer-based safety required for self-driving.

Ultimately, it comes down to culture. The car safety people have historically had a human driver to blame when things go bad – and this is baked into the standards such as ISO 26262, the classic automotive safety standard for electronic systems.

In private, some US self-driving companies will say ‘yeah, we read it, but it’s not for us’. In public, they use words written by lawyers for other lawyers – the large print giveth and the fine print taketh away.

In other standards, risk is a combination of probability and severity – the riskier it is, the more engineering effort you need to put in to mitigate that risk.

In automotive, they say it’s controllability, severity and exposure. They take credit every time a driver cleans up a technical malfunction, until they don’t – then they blame driver error. Google the Audi 5000 Unintended Acceleration Debacle, a famous case from the 1980s. The point is car companies are used to blaming the humans for technical malfunctions.

In self-driving you also have the robot guys, who are used to making cool demos to get the next tranche of funding. Their idea of safety is a big red button. I’ve worked with them, they’re smart and they’re gonna learn on the job, but they historically had zero skills in mass production or safety at scale on public roads.

Both these cultures made sense in their previous operating environments. In traditional automotive, I have a problem with some driver blaming but, holistically, one fatality per 100 million miles is pretty impressive. With the robot guys, the Silicon Valley ‘move fast and break things’ model falls down if what you’re breaking is a person, particularly a road user who didn’t sign up for the risk.

Oh, and they’re also now using machine learning, which means the functional safety people will struggle to apply their existing toolsets. That’s the challenge. It’s complicated and there’s lots of moving parts.

Koopman's 2022 book on self-driving safety: How Safe Is Safe Enough?
Koopman’s 2022 book on self-driving safety: How Safe Is Safe Enough?

Which brings us to the need for regulation…

In the US, it’s like we’ve been purposely avoiding regulating software for decades. Look at the National Highway Transportation Safety Authority (NHTSA) investigations into Tesla crashes – it always seems to be about the driver not paying attention, rather than Tesla made it easy for them not to pay attention.

Now we have the likes of Cruise, Waymo and Zoox – computers driving the car, no human backup, and basically self-certification. Jump through the bureaucratic hoops, get insurance, and you can just put this stuff on the road.

The US is the Wild West for vehicle automation. There are no rules. The NHTSA might issue a recall for something particularly egregious. If there’s a bad crash in California, the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) might yank a permit.

Our social contract is supposedly supported by strong tort and product defect laws. But what good is that if it takes five years and a million dollars of legal fees to pursue a car company in the event of a fatal crash? In some states the computer is said to be responsible for driving errors, but is not a legal person, so there is literally nobody to sue.

That’s why I’m working with William H. Widen, Professor at the University of Miami School of Law – to find ways to reduce the expense and improve accessibility.

Expanding this to hands-free driving, you’re no fan of using the SAE levels for regulation?

Whether you like them or not, the SAE levels are the worst idea ever for regulation – they make for bad law. The mythical Level 5 is just an arbitrary point on a continuum! Also, testing – beta versus not beta – matters a lot and SAE J3016 is really weak on that.

That’s why I’ve proposed a different categorisation of driving modes: testing, autonomous, supervisory and conventional. L2 and L3 is supervisory, L4 and 5 is autonomous.

The car accepting the button press to engage self-driving transfers the duty of care to a fictional entity called the computer driver, for whom the manufacturer is responsible. That’s not incompatible with your Law Commission’s user in charge (UIC) and no user in charge (NUIC).

The next question is: how do you give the duty of care back to the human driver? I say by giving them at least a 10 second warning, more if appropriate. In a lot of cases, 30 or 40 seconds might be required, depending on the circumstance.

It’s not perfect, but it’s got simplicity on its side. The car companies can then do whatever the heck they want, held accountable under tort law.

For further info, including links to Philip Koopman’s books and Safe Autonomy blog, visit koopman.us