Will I buy a self-driving car?
Sounds like a simple enough question, right? Actually, predicting who will own self-driving cars takes us to the complicated intersection of the connected, automated, shared and electric megatrends.
For many of us born last century, a car will be the second most expensive thing we ever buy, after a house. With our hearts ruling our heads, we dismissed the sage advice of oil baron Paul Getty – “If it appreciates, buy it. If it depreciates, lease it.” – for the love of a particular model in our favourite colour.
These days, thanks to modern finance products such as Personal Contract Purchase (PCP), we get the best of both worlds – the option after three years to purchase outright or return it to the lender, and repeat. No wonder the UK vehicle parc hit an all-time high of over 41 million last year.
However, within the SMMT’s new car registration figures, there’s a notable trend: the growth is driven by fleets, with both private buyer and business registrations well down. What’s going on?
Access or ownership
A 2023 McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse survey of 4,000 French, German and UK respondents provides a clue. It found that 60% owned a car, and 80% had regular access to one – an important distinction, and demographics come into play.
As Doug Jenkins, Motor Technical Risk Manager at AXA Insurance, has pointed out: “In my day, passing your test and getting your first car was all about mobility. Young people still want to get from A to B, but they want choices – they’re not so worried about ownership.”
Temporary car insurance provider, Cuvva, provides some compelling statistics: the average car owner in Outer London will spend £3,502 a year on running costs alone (insurance, fuel, MOT, tax and maintenance), and 31% of London car owners use their vehicle less than 10 times a month.
The unsurprising result is, as Andrew Smith, managing director of vehicle rental firm Sixt, told The Telegraph: “We see customers now who come to us every Friday and rent a car just for the weekend.”
So, less outright ownership and better short-term access options already. Now, let’s turn our attention to how self-driving might change the game.
In his April 2024 industry update, Scaling Self-driving Technology on the Path to Ubiquity, the CEO of Oxa, Gavin Jackson, wrote: “There’s disagreement over the sectors to focus on first, and no international consensus yet on what constitutes a safe autonomous vehicle system.
“Momentum, however, is picking up. The UK’s new Automated Vehicles Act will lead to regulations overseeing the in-use safety of vehicle fleets, and a host of other things.”
Two important takeaways there. First, the ubiquity; once self-driving tech is proven, it will be everywhere – from privately owned cars to vans, buses and HGVs. Second, the emphasis on fleet.
Self-driving fleets
To answer the question directly, large numbers of self-driving cars will be owned by robotaxi companies (those with a UK No User-in-Charge operator licence, as per the Law Commission’s recommendations). Which makes Uber’s recent investment in Wayve all the more interesting.
“Wayve is building a ‘general purpose’ driving Al that can power all levels of driving automation in any type of vehicle, anywhere in the world,” said CEO and inaugural Self-Driving Industry Award winner, Alex Kendall.
“I’m excited to be teaming up with Uber to massively ramp up our AI’s fleet learning, ensuring our AV technology is safe and ready for global deployment across Uber’s network. Together, we’re excited to work with automotive OEMs to bring autonomous driving technologies to consumers sooner.”
Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber, added:“Uber and Wayve share a vision of reimagining mobility. Wayve’s advanced Embodied AI approach holds a ton of promise as we work towards a world where modern vehicles are shared, electric and autonomous.”
Shared vehicles, by their nature, are utilitarian, and rarely set pulses racing. That’s why experts like Steve Gooding, of the RAC Foundation, and Tom Stringer, Product Strategy Director at JLR, insist that self-driving will not signal the end of personal ownership, far from it.
“Are you really going to ditch all those bespoke choices, and the convenience of knowing the car is at your personal beck-and-call, because you’re going to be able to summon a self-driving vehicle?” Gooding asks.
Self-driving cars will clearly be an attractive proposition for those currently unable to drive. Ownership patterns will be different in urban and rural areas, and there could well be regulatory curveballs like road charging or incentives for multi-occupancy.
In any case, those with the deepest pockets will still treat themselves to amazing cars like the Rolls-Royce 103EX concept. For the majority, as with electric vehicles (EVs), fleet operators and leasing companies will shoulder much of the early adopter risk.
Please note: the author produced an earlier version of this article for The Institute of the Motor Industry’s MotorPro magazine.
